Sunday 30 August
A value bet is where Bet365’s odds pay more than the real chance deserves — the bigger the +%, the better the price. Tap any match for the full picture.
Refreshes results first. Data current to 29 Aug, 01:26.
Days with analysis: 2026-08-312026-08-302026-08-29
Premier League
4 matches14:00Chelsea v Brighton
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +19%Brighton to winMatch resultour chance: 30% · the odds (4.00) treat it as 25%
- +15%Chelsea not to scoreTeam goalsour chance: 19% · the odds (6.00) treat it as 17%
- +7%Chelsea to score 1 or fewerTeam goalsour chance: 51% · the odds (2.10) treat it as 48%
- +4%Brighton to win or drawTwo ways to winour chance: 54% · the odds (1.91) treat it as 52%
- +2%Chelsea to score 2 or fewerTeam goalsour chance: 77% · the odds (1.33) treat it as 75%
Chelsea v Brighton
46% Chelsea win25% draw30% Brighton win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 46% | 1.83 | 55% | -16% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | 25% | -2% |
| Brighton | 30% | 4.00 | 25% | +19% |
3 or more goals56%
both teams score59%
likely scores1-1 (11%)2-1 (9%)1-0 (8%)1-2 (7%)
ChelseaBrighton
+110%attack power+97%
0.8scored /game1.8
2.0conceded /game1.0
70%3+ goal games70%
50%both scored30%
WLWDLformWLLWL
last meetings0-31-30-34-22-1“5 of their last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals” — luck, not a pattern
14:00Leeds v Brentford
Brentford are the outsiders, but our model gives them a 36% chance.
Nothing worth backing here — we checked 69 different bets and Bet365’s prices are all fair or worse. Sitting this one out is fine.
Leeds v Brentford
39% Leeds win26% draw36% Brentford win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 39% | 2.60 | 38% | +0% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.30 | 30% | -15% |
| Brentford | 36% | 2.70 | 37% | -4% |
3 or more goals52%
both teams score57%
likely scores1-1 (12%)1-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (8%)
LeedsBrentford
+73%attack power+98%
1.3scored /game1.4
0.8conceded /game1.2
50%3+ goal games70%
40%both scored50%
WLWDWformWDDLW
last meetings0-01-10-02-52-1“3 of their last 5 meetings stayed under 2.5 goals” — matches how they play
14:00Sunderland v Fulham
The bookmakers make Sunderland favourites — this model narrowly prefers Fulham.
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +29%Fulham to winMatch resultour chance: 42% · the odds (3.10) treat it as 32%
- +27%Sunderland not to scoreTeam goalsour chance: 36% · the odds (3.50) treat it as 29%
- +15%Sunderland to score 1 or fewerTeam goalsour chance: 73% · the odds (1.57) treat it as 64%
- +14%1 goal or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 34% · the odds (3.40) treat it as 29%
- +9%2 goals or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 60% · the odds (1.80) treat it as 56%
Sunderland v Fulham
29% Sunderland win29% draw42% Fulham win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 29% | 2.40 | 42% | -29% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 | 31% | -8% |
| Fulham | 42% | 3.10 | 32% | +29% |
3 or more goals40%
both teams score46%
likely scores1-1 (13%)0-1 (13%)0-0 (11%)1-0 (10%)
SunderlandFulham
+21%attack power+73%
1.3scored /game0.9
1.6conceded /game1.1
60%3+ goal games30%
60%both scored30%
LWWDDformLWDLL
last meetings1-30-11-21-04-1“3 of their last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals” — matches how they play
16:30Man United v Ipswich
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +14%Ipswich to winMatch resultour chance: 15% · the odds (7.50) treat it as 13%
- +3%Ipswich to score 2 or moreTeam goalsour chance: 26% · the odds (4.00) treat it as 25%
Man United v Ipswich
65% Man United win19% draw15% Ipswich win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United | 65% | 1.40 | 71% | -8% |
| Draw | 19% | 5.00 | 20% | -3% |
| Ipswich | 15% | 7.50 | 13% | +14% |
3 or more goals62%
both teams score56%
likely scores2-0 (10%)2-1 (10%)1-1 (9%)1-0 (9%)
Man UnitedIpswich
+102%attack power+48%
1.8scored /game1.6
1.2conceded /game1.0
70%3+ goal games60%
60%both scored60%
LWWDWformWWDDW
last meetings3-21-1
La Liga
3 matches16:00Real Madrid v Malaga
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +49%2 goals or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 44% · the odds (3.40) treat it as 29%
- +47%1 goal or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 21% · the odds (7.00) treat it as 14%
- +37%Exact final score 2-0Exact scoreour chance: 18% · the odds (7.50) treat it as 13%
- +32%3 goals or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 66% · the odds (2.00) treat it as 50%
- +32%Real Madrid to score 1 or fewerTeam goalsour chance: 26% · the odds (5.00) treat it as 20%
Real Madrid v Malaga
86% Real Madrid win11% draw3% Malaga win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 86% | 1.10 | 91% | -5% |
| Draw | 11% | 9.50 | 11% | +2% |
| Malaga | 3% | 21.00 | 5% | -39% |
3 or more goals56%
both teams score25%
likely scores2-0 (18%)3-0 (16%)1-0 (14%)4-0 (10%)
Real MadridMalaga
+84%attack power−53%
1.9scored /game0.8
0.9conceded /game1.9
40%3+ goal games50%
60%both scored50%
WWWWWformDLLLL
last meetings2-13-22-02-11-1“Real Madrid won 4 of the last 5 meetings” — they really are much stronger
18:30La Coruna v Valencia
The bookmakers make La Coruna favourites — this model narrowly prefers Valencia.
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +29%Valencia to winMatch resultour chance: 41% · the odds (3.10) treat it as 32%
- +28%Valencia to score 3 or moreTeam goalsour chance: 13% · the odds (10.00) treat it as 10%
- +19%La Coruna not to scoreTeam goalsour chance: 37% · the odds (3.25) treat it as 31%
- +14%Valencia to score 2 or moreTeam goalsour chance: 35% · the odds (3.25) treat it as 31%
- +6%La Coruna to score 1 or fewerTeam goalsour chance: 73% · the odds (1.44) treat it as 69%
La Coruna v Valencia
30% La Coruna win29% draw41% Valencia win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Coruna | 30% | 2.50 | 40% | -25% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.00 | 33% | -14% |
| Valencia | 41% | 3.10 | 32% | +29% |
3 or more goals39%
both teams score45%
likely scores0-1 (13%)1-1 (13%)1-0 (11%)0-0 (11%)
La CorunaValencia
−22%attack power+3%
1.4scored /game1.2
1.7conceded /game1.1
50%3+ goal games30%
80%both scored50%
DDLLDformLDWWD
last meetings1-21-20-31-11-1“3 of their last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals” — matches how they play
20:30Celta v Ath Bilbao
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +9%Celta to winMatch resultour chance: 46% · the odds (2.38) treat it as 42%
- +2%Celta to score 2 or moreTeam goalsour chance: 43% · the odds (2.38) treat it as 42%
Celta v Ath Bilbao
46% Celta win26% draw28% Ath Bilbao win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta | 46% | 2.38 | 42% | +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.20 | 31% | -17% |
| Ath Bilbao | 28% | 3.10 | 32% | -13% |
3 or more goals47%
both teams score51%
likely scores1-1 (12%)1-0 (11%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (9%)
CeltaAth Bilbao
+23%attack power+11%
1.0scored /game1.2
1.3conceded /game2.0
50%3+ goal games50%
50%both scored60%
LDWDLformLLLDL
last meetings1-12-01-21-32-1“3 of their last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals” — matches how they play
Serie A
3 matches17:30Napoli v Como
Como are the outsiders, but our model gives them a 31% chance.
Nothing worth backing here — we checked 65 different bets and Bet365’s prices are all fair or worse. Sitting this one out is fine.
Napoli v Como
40% Napoli win28% draw31% Como win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 40% | 2.50 | 40% | +1% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.00 | 33% | -15% |
| Como | 31% | 3.10 | 32% | -3% |
3 or more goals42%
both teams score48%
likely scores1-1 (13%)1-0 (12%)0-1 (10%)0-0 (10%)
NapoliComo
+46%attack power+48%
1.5scored /game1.8
0.6conceded /game0.8
30%3+ goal games40%
20%both scored40%
WWWLDformDWWWD
last meetings0-00-01-23-1“2 of their last 4 meetings had over 2.5 goals” — matches how they play
19:45Lazio v Genoa
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +2%Lazio to winMatch resultour chance: 50% · the odds (2.05) treat it as 49%
Lazio v Genoa
50% Lazio win28% draw23% Genoa win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 50% | 2.05 | 49% | +2% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.10 | 32% | -15% |
| Genoa | 23% | 4.20 | 24% | -5% |
3 or more goals40%
both teams score45%
likely scores1-0 (14%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (10%)2-0 (10%)
LazioGenoa
+23%attack power−1%
1.3scored /game0.5
1.2conceded /game1.3
40%3+ goal games30%
40%both scored30%
WWLLWformLLLDD
last meetings3-23-02-03-01-0“Lazio won 5 of the last 5 meetings” — history exaggerates it
19:45Cagliari v Inter
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +38%4 or more goals in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 40% · the odds (3.40) treat it as 29%
- +35%5 or more goals in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 23% · the odds (6.00) treat it as 17%
- +20%3 or more goals in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 63% · the odds (1.91) treat it as 52%
- +18%Inter to score 3 or moreTeam goalsour chance: 43% · the odds (2.75) treat it as 36%
- +14%Cagliari to score 2 or moreTeam goalsour chance: 21% · the odds (5.50) treat it as 18%
Cagliari v Inter
11% Cagliari win17% draw71% Inter win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 11% | 8.00 | 13% | -10% |
| Draw | 17% | 4.50 | 22% | -22% |
| Inter | 71% | 1.42 | 70% | +1% |
3 or more goals63%
both teams score52%
likely scores0-2 (11%)1-2 (9%)0-1 (9%)0-3 (9%)
CagliariInter
+1%attack power+106%
1.0scored /game2.8
1.2conceded /game1.3
50%3+ goal games70%
40%both scored70%
WWWLDformWDDWW
last meetings0-30-21-30-32-2“Inter won 4 of the last 5 meetings” — they really are much stronger
League One
2 matches14:00AFC Wimbledon v Wigan
AFC Wimbledon are the outsiders, but our model gives them a 34% chance.
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +26%1 goal or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 39% · the odds (3.25) treat it as 31%
- +23%Wigan not to scoreTeam goalsour chance: 35% · the odds (3.50) treat it as 29%
- +21%Exact final score 1-0Exact scoreour chance: 13% · the odds (9.50) treat it as 11%
- +14%2 goals or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 66% · the odds (1.73) treat it as 58%
- +14%At least one team not to scoreBoth teams to scoreour chance: 58% · the odds (1.95) treat it as 51%
AFC Wimbledon v Wigan
34% AFC Wimbledon win31% draw35% Wigan win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 34% | 3.20 | 31% | +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | 31% | -1% |
| Wigan | 35% | 2.25 | 44% | -21% |
3 or more goals34%
both teams score42%
likely scores1-1 (14%)0-1 (13%)0-0 (13%)1-0 (13%)
AFC WimbledonWigan
−28%attack power−25%
0.2scored /game1.0
2.0conceded /game1.2
50%3+ goal games50%
10%both scored30%
DLLWLformLLLLD
last meetings1-01-20-10-21-1“4 of their last 5 meetings stayed under 2.5 goals” — matches how they play
15:00Mansfield v Luton
Mansfield are the outsiders, but our model gives them a 35% chance.
Where the odds pay more than the real chance deserves:
- +6%1 goal or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 24% · the odds (4.50) treat it as 22%
- +5%2 goals or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 48% · the odds (2.20) treat it as 45%
- +5%3 goals or fewer in the matchGoals in the matchour chance: 70% · the odds (1.50) treat it as 67%
- +5%Luton to score 1 or fewerTeam goalsour chance: 58% · the odds (1.80) treat it as 56%
- +4%At least one team not to scoreBoth teams to scoreour chance: 44% · the odds (2.38) treat it as 42%
Mansfield v Luton
35% Mansfield win26% draw39% Luton win
| our chance | odds | odds assume | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield | 35% | 2.90 | 34% | +1% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 | 29% | -12% |
| Luton | 39% | 2.30 | 43% | -10% |
3 or more goals52%
both teams score56%
likely scores1-1 (12%)0-1 (9%)1-2 (9%)1-0 (8%)
MansfieldLuton
−4%attack power+12%
1.6scored /game2.3
1.2conceded /game1.3
60%3+ goal games80%
60%both scored80%
LWWDWformDWWWW
last meetings2-22-01-22-21-1“3 of their last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals” — matches how they play
Straight talk: the percentages are honest — when this model says 30%, it happens 30% of the time, tested on 8,480 matches it had never seen. But in a 15-year test, backing every value pick lost about 8p per £1 — Bet365 are hard to beat. A guide, not a promise. Prices from 29 Aug, 01:23 and always moving. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.